complexity for Pension and QROPS and investment strategies also needs continues monitoring of exchange rates.
Continuing our daily look at factors affecting currencies allows some insight into market conditions affecting exchange rates. Cash and income timing for UK Pensions and QROPS should be considered to maximise the Pension, QROPS and investment income and benefits taken.
After a brief lull on Friday, the pound returned to dominant form and as the ongoing Greek debt crisis haunted the euro once again the pound matched its 2010 high against the single currency.
Helping the pound along were recent political opinion polls which appear now to all agree the Conservatives have edged out a small lead over the other two parties and may end up with most seats after next week’s general election.

After last week’s televised political debate, the Liberal Democrats seemed to have lost a little of the momentum gained after Nick Clegg’s popular display the week before. Whilst a hung parliament is still a distinct possibly, popular belief within the markets is that the Tories might just win bringing back an appetite for the riskier currencies such as the pound.

The pound also gained support from a survey by property Data Company Hometrack showing house prices in England and Wales rose by 1.8% in April from this time a year ago, their fastest pace of increase since January 2008.

The euro came under broad selling pressure as growing investor impatience over the implementation and terms of a financial bailout for Greece pushed the spread between Greek and German 10-year yields Bunds to fresh 12-year highs.
The unattractiveness of the troubled euro has helped the pound to match a five month high set back in January of €1.1622 at 4.30pm.

Sterling’s trade weighted index against its main trading partners moved up to 80.1, the highest in two months. The pound’s trade-weighted value is often steered by movements in sterling against the euro, as the single European currency comprises the majority of the currency basket which tracks sterling’s moves versus its trading partners.
The negative appeal of the euro also assisted the pound against the dollar. Since EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair, the fall in euro strength to below $1.33 again helped the pound test the $1.55 mark twice during the session.
Some traders believe the negative sentiment towards the euro could take the pound well up into 1.16’s, however given the last few sterling rallies, there always seems to be something around the corner (Dubai debt crisis, quantitative easing, low GDP etc) that brings it to a halt. Giving the election is next week we could another surprise.

Positioning data for the latest week showed speculators further trimmed bets against sterling, although market positioning in the pound remains excessively short.
A cut in these short positions has helped sterling to recover from a 10-month low of $1.4781 hit last month, and some analysts say the market has become less negative about the pound as it has come to terms with the prospect of the election producing an inconclusive result.

This week is set to be a fairly quiet one in terms of significant data releases in Europe. Today sees the release of UK mortgage approvals and CBI distributive trades survey. Tomorrow however, the FED meet to decide the US interest rates, it is expected they will leave them at 0.25% and Reserve Bank of New Zealand are expected to leave their rates at 2.5% tomorrow night. Friday there is the release of US and Canadian GDP 1st quarter figures.
On another note I read in a report yesterday evening about Bank of England interest rates. The report mentioned with UK inflation higher than is desirable the BoE may start to raise interest rates as soon as August with plan to reach 1.0% by the end of the year. Previously, interest rates were expected to stay at 0.5% until well in to 2011. A rise in interest rate will make the UK more attractive to overseas investors and could bring extra value to the pound.

Currency exchange remains a key factor for many expats with UK Pensions and QROPS. The complexity for Pension and QROPS and investment strategies also needs continues monitoring of exchange rates.