Tag Archives: estate
The Ripples of 2008 Slowdown are Now Getting Closer to Home
Real estate figures at the start of the year are now in, and the numbers for both low-rise and high-rise units indicate that we are still in for some bumpy ride in the next few months. The unfolding developments in various real estate markets are giving conflicting signals. For instance, high rise condo units are performing pretty well despite the lingering problems bugging other property segments. In a market report that was recently released, the new high rise home property segment registered an amazing 1,107 units sold for the first month of the year. The figure is by far the highest that was ever achieved by the segment for the last 5 years.
Surprisingly, things were not as rosy for low rise home properties. Total sales performance for the property segment for the same period was only 1,145. The figure is the second lowest for the property segment for the last five years and is only higher to the sales figure for the same period last year, which is admittedly the most difficult year for the real estate market. It was during this period that the market and the economy as a whole were mired in countless challenges including high interest rates, recession and high unemployment rate.
Things are no better in major real estate markets as well. The inventory level of low-rise properties in the Greater Toronto Area continues to decline and is now at 7,238 units. This inventory of home units for sale is more than 60% lower than the ideal level of inventory for the real estate market.
On the other hand, high-rise home properties and resale home units are now going for much higher tag prices due to strong pressures on the demand side in major real estate markets. We are seeing the worst situations on both extreme scenarios, which according to real estate experts and industry analysts is unprecedented.
Towards the end of the month under consideration, new condo properties were being sold by an average price of $407,885 which is 5% higher for the same period of the previous year. The January figure is also higher by $9,710 to the average price of the same home properties towards the end of last year. These numbers indicate that almost half of the incremental increase in prices for the entire year happened in a single month.
On the other hand, the average price of newly built single-family home units for Greater Toronto Area was pegged at $474,035 towards the end of January this year. This figure is a jump of $14,462 from December of last year and an incremental increase of $34,436 for the same period of the preceding year. Market experts observed that 42% of the increase can be attributed to the price shift during a single month.
What are the implications of these major shifts in the real estate markets? Real estate experts agree that the inventory levels of single-family home properties are critical factors that define the directions in the real estate markets. What worries experts is the continuing and fast downtrend in the supply variables of most real estate markets. Stakeholders who have front-seat view of the goings-on in the real estate industry believe that the current state cannot be attributed to one specific variable. Real estate analysts agree that the situation is a confluence of several factors that negate whatever upside changes that we are experiencing right now.
While the challenges in the real estate market can be attributed to the global recession that hit major economies last year, experts are not sure how long the condition will last. This prevailing market condition is the main reason why home buyers are not too keen on going back to the market, and this depressed situation in real estate market has led to fewer projects of developers and home builders.
Are Banks funding Apartment Loans, ReFinancing and Commercial MultiFamily Construction Projects?
A common question being asked in todays financial climate, “Are apartment financing, MultiFamily property refinancing or apartment construction loans still available?” The answer to this question is a resounding YES. I continue see loans funded for apartment purchases, apartment refinances and construction lending. This is awfully good news in a time of a protracted credit crunch; a credit squeeze which has now gone global in its scope.
A source close to my company, one with ties to the top counsels of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, recently confided that Fannie and Freddie have been making money ONLY in the Apartment and Mobile Home Lending sectors. The upshot is this: These two venerable institutions of probity are determined to increase liquidity and strengthen apartment lending programs. The Fed needs to hang its hat on something, so why not strengthen an already existing stable lending platform to promote future growth in an industry already doing well: Apartments.
This protracted credit squeeze began as a virus. This virus started with the housing industry and contaminated the commercial real estate market along with just about every stock, financial instrument, business man, woman or line of credit in the country. Apartments have been the least impacted the credit crunch, but sales volume has still registered sizeable decline.
What a mess it has become. The chill in the credit markets began in October 2006. By October of 2007, this chill had become a deep freeze.
To understand the steep decline in the commercial real estate industry, one need only look at the numbers: Total commercial sales volume for October 2008 was barely one-quarter of its October 2007 level and just over 20% of the levels it achieved in 2006. Now that is a drop!
The aggregate deal volume and sales volumes for commercial real estate as a whole is down 75%, October 2007 to 2008.
For apartments, the fall off in deal volume has been sharp and steady: The number of properties trading hands has fallen 60% from October 2006 to October 2007 and has fallen another 75% this past 12 months.
There are several explanations for this but perhaps the number one reason is price risk, as measured between the spread of cap rates and the 10-Year Treasuries. In the apartment sector, this spread has more than tripled, (not Good) to a spread of 263 bps from their narrowest point in July of 2006, when it was 81 bps.
Between 2000 and 2004, the total renter households declined by 1.9 million as home ownership increase from 66.9 percent to 69 percent.
In 2005 this house-hold, rental-living trend began to reverse itself. Since the beginning of 2007,the home ownership rate has fallen by 110 basis points, resulting in 1.5 million additional renter households. This reversal is most pronounced in the younger age segment but it cuts across all age lines. The trend is up for rental-living-units.
In the end, Apartments are holding up well. Financing IS available and more people than ever are in need of rental housing.